Science based targets: An introduction

Current global warming

It is well known that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are rising and pushing up average global temperatures year on year. If the Earth warms by 2ºC or more, compared with pre-industrial levels, the results will be catastrophic.

Consequences for the planet include:

Rising sea levels
Ocean acidification causing loss of coral reefs and shellfish
Heatwaves, droughts and crop failure
Total loss of Arctic sea ice in summer, accelerating climate forcing
Loss of biodiversity and species extinction
Mass migration, triggering conflict

Paris Agreement: Do not exceed a rise of 2ºC and strive for 1.5ºC

At the Paris Agreement, 195 countries established Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These are the climate targets set by country, in order to collectively meet the need for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This commitment aims to keep the global temperature rise well below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels, and strive for 1.5ºC. But, the difference between the 0.5ºC, in terms of both consequences and available carbon budget is huge.

‘Business as usual’ is currently headed to a 6ºC rise. The aggregate of current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement would reduce this to 3ºC or 4ºC.

The long term goal of the Paris Agreement is that there will be a balance between emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. The Paris Agreement anticipates that governments will review progress every 5 years starting in 2023. Stronger NDCs will be implemented if needed.

In order for the long term goal of the Paris Agreement to be met, it is expected that there will be a significant use of negative emission technologies in the future. These technologies are currently unproven. The medium term targets we set today, for example for 2030, strongly influence the burden we place on our children to negate those emissions in the longer term.

SBTi

The Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) is a partnership between CDP (formally the Climate Disclosure Project), UN Global Compact, WRI and WWF.

The SBTi is helping companies to set their own carbon targets that match the goals set out in the Paris agreement, and prevent the worst impacts of climate change. The problem is the SBTi’s methods give just a 50% chance of preventing a 2ºC increase. Can we really risk the fate of the planet on a coin toss?

SDA

The Sectoral Decarbonisation approach (SDA), is the sector-based method developed by the SBTi to set emissions targets. However, if your business is UK based, note that UK targets are much tougher than SDA global targets and should be the basis of your business’s science based target (SBT).

Is your CSR narrative bullet-proof?

The approach used by the SDA has a 50% chance of preventing a 2ºC global temperature rise and 0% chance of preventing a 1.5ºC rise. Verco believes that an authentic SBT should strive harder to limit the rise to 1.5ºC.

We believe that the commitments of environmentally responsible businesses should go beyond the ambition of the SBTI targets. We feel strongly that current climate science and the Paris Agreement mean targeting an 80% chance of preventing a 2ºC rise, rather than the 50% probability behind the SBTi’s targets. This is challenging because it means total global emissions must be halved every decade from 2020 to 2050. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) states that to stay close to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would need to reach net zero by the 2040s*.

To provide some resilience to a future in which carbon budgets will be tightened, we recommend corporates do seek SBTi approval for their carbon cutting plans, but set targets which are significantly more ambitious than the SBTi’s current minimum.

We are already working with ambitious businesses and setting targets that are better aligned with a 1.5ºC global carbon budget. Verco also provides SBTi submission support for real estate and industry clients, along with ambitious target setting analyses for major multinational businesses.

For further information, click here.

Other articles about Science based targets:

Science based target setting: Part One of Three: The Science

Science based target setting: Part Two of Three: The Methods

The trouble with Science based targets

References for 'The Climate Coin Toss':

1. Greenhouse gas emissions are rising
Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017, IEA, March 2018

2. increasing global temperatures
WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2016, WMO no. 1189, 2017 p5

3. if the Earth warms by more than 2ºC the results will be catastrophic
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp., 2014

4. Total loss of Arctic sea ice in summer
A Farewell to Ice, a report from the Arctic, Peter Wadhams, Sept 2016

5. Accelerating climate forcing
A Farewell to Ice, a report from the Arctic, Peter Wadhams, Sept 2016

6. Heatwaves, droughts, and crop failure
Report on the structured expert dialogue on the 2013–2015 review, UNFCCC , May 2015 p15, §42

7. and ocean acidification
Report on the structured expert dialogue on the 2013–2015 review, UNFCCC , May 2015 p15, §42

8. At the Paris Agreement, 195 countries committed to keep the global temperature within 2ºC, and strive for 1.5ºC.
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf Article 2.1(a)

9. SBTi aims to help companies set carbon targets to match this goal
Science-based Target Setting Manual Version 3.0, SBTi, July 2017 p13, §1 and 2

10. But this approach gives only a 50% chance of preventing a 2ºC increase
Science-based Target Setting Manual Version 3.0, SBTi, July 2017 p10, §2

11. To give at least an 80% chance of preventing a 2ºC rise, total global emissions must be halved every decade from 2020 to 2050.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269: A roadmap for rapid decarbonisation by Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Joeri Rogelj, Malte Meinshausen, Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Science 24 Mar 2017: Vol. 355, Issue 6331, pp. 1269-1271

* UK climate action following the Paris Agreement, Committee on Climate Change, October 2016